Bayes' theorem, which Laplace had found independently in 1774 and set out here as a general principle for inferring causes from observed events. The same book is also known for Laplace's central limit theorem.
Card 1 of 259. Answer: Bayes' theorem, which Laplace had found independently in 1774 and set out here as a general principle for inferring causes from observed events. The same book is also known for Laplace's central limit theorem.
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Bayes' theorem is the expected answer. In Théorie analytique des probabilités (1812), Laplace set out as a general principle the rule for reasoning from an observed event back to its probable causes, now written P(A | B) = P(B | A) P(A) / P(B).
The name credits Thomas Bayes, an English minister whose essay was read to the Royal Society by Richard Price in 1763, two years after Bayes died. Laplace reached the idea independently in his 1774 memoir on the probability of causes and went further, applying it to birth records and deriving the rule of succession: after s successes in n trials, the next trial succeeds with probability (s + 1)/(n + 2).
The card has a catch: the same book is just as famous for the central limit theorem, Laplace's extension of de Moivre's normal approximation to sums of many independent variables. Some historians argue that Bayesian inference is largely Laplace's work, since he turned Bayes' special case into a general method.
