Yes. Bayes died in 1761, and his friend Richard Price edited his essay and presented it to the Royal Society in December 1763, two years later. Pierre-Simon Laplace, working independently, stated the same principle in 1774 and developed it further over the following decades, notably in his Théorie analytique des probabilités (1812).
Card 1 of 259. Answer: Yes. Bayes died in 1761, and his friend Richard Price edited his essay and presented it to the Royal Society in December 1763, two years later. Pierre-Simon Laplace, working independently, stated the same principle in 1774 and developed it further over the following decades, notably in his Théorie analytique des probabilités (1812).
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Yes. Thomas Bayes, an English Presbyterian minister, died on 7 April 1761, and his result was published two years later. Bayes' theorem updates the probability of a hypothesis H after seeing evidence E: P(H | E) = P(E | H) P(H) / P(E).
His friend Richard Price edited the manuscript and sent it to the Royal Society as "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances", read on 23 December 1763 and printed in Philosophical Transactions. Bayes never wrote the modern formula; he solved one problem, inferring a binomial probability from observed successes and failures with a uniform prior. Laplace, unaware of Bayes, stated the principle in 1774 and developed it further in his Théorie analytique des probabilités (1812).
Interview staple: a disease has 1% prevalence, the test catches 90% of cases and wrongly flags 9% of healthy people. P(positive) = 0.009 + 0.0891 = 0.0981, so P(disease | positive) = 0.009 / 0.0981 ≈ 9%. Ignoring the prior is the base rate fallacy.
